INCIDENCE OF COVID-19 IN THE POVERTY OF MONTERÍA, COLOMBIA

The purpose of this article is to study the vulnerability of the socioeconomic strata of the municipality of Monteria that are not in a condition of poverty, in terms of the probabilities that the people who comprise them have of being in monetary poverty as a consequence of the

deterioration of labor income caused by adverse economic events, induced by shocks from phenomena such as Covid 19, for which four econometric Logit models are estimated with 

information from 552 surveys of the quality of life type, applied to the same number of households

in the municipality of Monteria in 2018. The results indicate that the estimated models present good adjustments in that the percentages of predictions count R exceed 67.5%, as well as being statistically significant with confidence levels greater than 99%, since the LR Statistics have a p-value < 0.01 in all cases. Therefore, the empirical evidence shows that, although all people are exposed to unfavorable economic phenomena, those in the low stratum have the highest probability of being left in conditions of poverty in the order of 82%, i.e. they have the highest degree of vulnerability and an inverse relationship between socioeconomic strata and vulnerability is confirmed. Therefore, if we wish to guarantee a sustained reduction in poverty, it is necessary that public policies be made effective, deepened and focused on both the poor and the vulnerable population.