Impact of conservation policies on mangrove cover in the jambelí archipelago: a multi-temporal analysis with remote sensing
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1719-3393
This study analyzed the effectiveness of public mangrove conservation policies in the Jambelí Archipelago (Ecuador) through a multitemporal analysis of Landsat satellite images from 1991 and 2024. A supervised classification using the Random Forest algorithm was applied, along with the calculation of NDVI, NDWI, and CMRI spectral indices to assess changes in mangrove cover, vegetation vigor, and surface moisture over time. The results showed a net gain of 279.97 ha in mangrove cover (3.23%), attributed to natural regeneration processes and the implementation of community-based programs such as Socio Manglar and the Sustainable Use and Custody Agreements for the Mangrove Ecosystem. Despite this gain, a cumulative loss of 1,868.52 ha was recorded, mainly due to the expansion of 2,173.55 ha of active shrimp farms. Natural regeneration reached an average of 65 ha/year, surpassing the average annual gross deforestation of 56.62 ha/year, resulting in a negative net deforestation rate of –8 ha/year. Qualitatively, NDVI increased (up to 0.65), while NDWI dropped from 0.60 to 0.22, and CMRI values decreased from a 1991 maximum of 1.28 to just 0.10 in 2024, indicating a loss of moisture and an incomplete ecological recovery. The findings suggest that, although the implemented policies have helped slow mangrove loss and allowed a partial recovery of forest cover, they have not yet restored the ecosystem's full ecological functionality. To achieve effective mangrove conservation in Jambelí, it is recommended to strengthen local governance, expand community programs, and implement active restoration strategies.
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