Impact of exchange rate volatility on investment decisions of institutional portfolios: an analysis with a territorial focus in the department of Caquetá (Colombia)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5460-6687
This study analyzes the impact of exchange rate volatility on investment decisions in institutional portfolios, incorporating a contextual interpretation focused on peripheral territories such as the department of Caquetá (Colombia). A quantitative approach with an explanatory scope and a non-experimental longitudinal design was adopted, based on macro-financial time series analysis. Exchange rate volatility was estimated using conditional heteroskedasticity models, while investment decisions were operationalized through portfolio allocation indicators. A multiple regression model estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS) was applied to identify relationships between variables, including control factors such as interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. The results show that exchange rate volatility has a negative and significant effect on investment decisions, leading to adjustments in portfolio composition under uncertainty scenarios. From a territorial perspective, it is concluded that although Caquetá does not directly participate in international financial markets, exchange rate volatility affects local economic dynamics indirectly through structural variables. The study highlights the importance of integrating macroeconomic analysis with regional realities.
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