Critical variables for achieving the 2030 agenda in inclusive education: a prospective approach with Micmac and Régnier's Abacus
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5405-0324
The objective of this study was to identify and prioritize the variables that most influence the achievement of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development in inclusive education, using a prospective approach that sought to recognize strategic factors for its transformation by 2030. The methodology applied was prospective, following the MICMAC methodology and Régnier's Abacus method. Based on a review of the documentation, the 20 variables most closely related to governance, knowledge management, inter-institutional cooperation, technological adoption, and educational inclusion were identified. The MICMAC technique allowed for determining the level of influence and dependence of the variables, and inclusive leadership, strategic planning with a focus on the SDGs, and teacher training for inclusion, among others, were classified as driving variables. Organizational culture, pedagogical innovation, inclusive infrastructure, and two other variables were considered critical variables. Integrating these results using Régnier's Abacus allowed for the development of three prospective scenarios: the trend scenario, the strategic scenario, and the transformative scenario. The results demonstrated that knowledge management for inclusion, sustained inter-institutional cooperation, and the adoption of accessible technologies are key to advancing sustainable inclusive education. The study concludes that a prospective approach provides an analytical framework to guide public policies and institutional strategies aimed at achieving the 2030 Agenda, integrating equity, quality, and educational inclusion.
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