Club convergence in total agricultural factor productivity: global evidence, 1961-2022
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4557-9509
This study examines convergence in global agricultural total factor productivity over 1961–2022 using the transition-path approach and the log-t test. Drawing on international data, we assess whether agricultural efficiency trajectories tend toward a common long-run path. The results show a sustained decline in the relative dispersion index, and the null hypothesis of global convergence cannot be rejected across all specifications, confirming an absolute convergence process in agricultural total factor productivity. The club-convergence analysis identifies a single global club, suggesting an increasing homogenization of technological dynamics in world agriculture. The observed convergence reflects the international diffusion of innovations, institutional strengthening, and expanded scientific and financial cooperation. The findings imply that global policies on innovation, credit, and sustainability can generate shared positive externalities. Finally, we underscore the need to incorporate environmental and sustainability dimensions to evaluate the prospect of a green convergence in global agricultural productivity.
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